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The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 98.6%. According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability that the Fed will keep the current interest rate unchanged by December is 1.4%, and the cumulative probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 98.6%. The probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged by January next year is 1.1%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 79.9%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 19%.Guotai Junan: A shares are expected to go out of the New Year's market. Recently, Guotai Junan's 2025 strategy meeting will be held in Shenzhen. The conference made an in-depth discussion and comprehensive outlook on the hot topics of market concern and the investment strategy in 2025. Fang Yi, chief strategist of Guotai Junan, said in an interview that the bottom of the A-share market has emerged, which is optimistic about the prospects of China stock market. The key driving force for the market to start comes from the decline of risk-free interest rate and the boost of risk preference. After a long period of continuous adjustment, the pessimistic expectation and microstructure of A-shares are fully clarified, and the positive signal of decision-makers to steady economic growth and support the capital market is an important cornerstone for the upward revision of long-term expectations and the elevation of the bottom of the stock market. Looking forward to the A-share market in 2025, Fang Yi said that there is still room for the optimistic policy expectation at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, and A-shares are expected to go out of the New Year's market. However, in the case of rising geopolitical conflict risks, the stock index may face a staged headwind. However, as the market stabilizes and revises the economic and policy expectations, the stock index is expected to strengthen again in the second half of 2025. (shanghai securities news)Guotai Junan: A shares are expected to go out of the New Year's market. Recently, Guotai Junan's 2025 strategy meeting will be held in Shenzhen. The conference made an in-depth discussion and comprehensive outlook on the hot topics of market concern and the investment strategy in 2025. Fang Yi, chief strategist of Guotai Junan, said in an interview that the bottom of the A-share market has emerged, which is optimistic about the prospects of China stock market. The key driving force for the market to start comes from the decline of risk-free interest rate and the boost of risk preference. After a long period of continuous adjustment, the pessimistic expectation and microstructure of A-shares are fully clarified, and the positive signal of decision-makers to steady economic growth and support the capital market is an important cornerstone for the upward revision of long-term expectations and the elevation of the bottom of the stock market. Looking forward to the A-share market in 2025, Fang Yi said that there is still room for the optimistic policy expectation at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, and A-shares are expected to go out of the New Year's market. However, in the case of rising geopolitical conflict risks, the stock index may face a staged headwind. However, as the market stabilizes and revises the economic and policy expectations, the stock index is expected to strengthen again in the second half of 2025. (shanghai securities news)

During the year, A-share companies threw out nearly 1,000 single and medium-term cash dividend plans. According to Wind statistics, as of December 11th, 940 listed companies have thrown out 994 single and medium-term cash dividend plans this year, with the number of them increasing by 269.41% year-on-year. The total amount of dividends involved was 667.519 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 166.24%. Among them, 791 orders have been implemented, and dividends have reached 360.768 billion yuan; 203 single pending implementation, the total amount of dividends to be paid is 306.751 billion yuan. (Securities Daily)In addition to the front page content, today's People's Daily's main financial contents include: 1. Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area has added a large channel, the Huangmaohai cross-sea channel, to traffic; 2. The five departments issued a document to strengthen the recruitment and employment security of manufacturing industry and promote the formation of a recruitment and employment consortium; In March and November, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased by 45.8% and 47.4% respectively. 4. Promote common development with the spirit of "helping each other with the same ball" (harmony); 5. Experts from the World Economic Forum: China has contributed to the global clean energy transformation; 6. Gao Yunlong attended the opening ceremony of the second Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Development Business Conference and delivered a speech; 7. The natural gas supply capacity of "three highs and one drop" in coal supply and demand during peak winter has been further improved; 8. Pay attention to system integration and build a high-level socialist market economic system with systematic thinking (targeted); 9. The market scale of China's crop seed industry exceeded 150 billion yuan for the first time last year. Industry-University-Research used integrated seed industry to improve quality and efficiency (high-quality development sees highlights and readings); In October and November, the passenger traffic of urban rail transit exceeded 2.7 billion passengers; 11, China's first 500 kv provincial digital power grid construction progress more than half; 12. Hangzhou Market Supervision Bureau launched the "Safe Consumption Receipt Code"; 13. Indonesia plans to add a number of special economic zones in the next four years; 14. Economic Outlook Report of the European Commission in Autumn 2024-The EU economy is expected to grow by 0.9% this year; 15. The Japanese enterprise price index reached the highest year-on-year increase in 17 months. 

Front page of China Securities Journal: Give better play to the role of "stabilizer". The reform of the investment side of the capital market has been solidly promoted. The front page of China Securities Journal stated that efforts should be made to break through the blocking points of social security, insurance, wealth management and other funds entering the market, steadily promote the reform of industry rates in Public Offering of Fund, and vigorously develop equity funds, especially indexed investment ... Recently, the reform of the investment side has been accelerated, helping to improve the function of the capital market in which investment and financing are coordinated. Market participants expect that in the next stage, around the key directions such as guiding "long money" to enter the market, enriching the product system, and promoting the development of indexed investment, the reform of the investment side will continue to be solidly promoted, and more new measures are expected to be researched and introduced, which will introduce more incremental funds to the market and better play its role as a "stabilizer" of the market. The market expects that the acceleration of investment-side reform will significantly increase the scale and proportion of medium and long-term capital investment, promote the long-term investment behavior and enhance the inherent stability of the capital market.Japanese enterprise survey: Enterprises believe that Trump's next presidential term will have a negative impact on the business environment, and 60% of Japanese enterprises expect that the trading range of USD/JPY will be between 140 and 150 by 2025. Half of Japanese companies expect higher profits in the next fiscal year.CICC: The CPI of the United States rose as scheduled in November, but it did not hinder the interest rate cut. CICC released a research report saying that the CPI and core CPI of the United States both rose to 0.31% in November, which was basically in line with the market and its expectations. For the post-election policies, if the immigration and tariff policies are too radical, it will bring pressure to inflation at the end of next year, which will have an impact on the market and even the mid-term elections. Therefore, before the mid-term elections, due to the "realistic constraints" of inflation, the inflation policy will be faster, but the scope may be limited, while the growth policy will be faster, and then the overall assets will still be positive. According to the difference between the natural interest rate and the real interest rate, CICC estimates that after the interest rate cut in December, there may still be two or three interest rate cuts in 2025, with the end point of interest rate cut at 3.5-3.75% and the center corresponding to long-term US debt at 3.8-4%.